Who Will Succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada’s Liberal Party Leader?
Potential Contenders Emerge as Trudeau Prepares to Step Down
After nearly a decade in power, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his impending resignation, acknowledging his party’s struggles in pre-election polling. The Liberal Party now faces the critical task of selecting a new leader to steer them into the next election, which must take place by late October this year.
Trudeau, 53, the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, has seen his popularity plummet due to rising costs of living, housing shortages, and a surge in immigration. His leadership suffered a significant blow last month when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, a long-time ally, resigned from the Cabinet.
While Trudeau will remain in office until a new leader is chosen, the urgency to elect his successor is mounting. With Parliament set to resume on March 24, opposition parties are preparing to table a no-confidence motion that could trigger an early election. Here are some of the leading candidates to replace Trudeau.
Chrystia Freeland: The Early Frontrunner
Freeland, a Member of Parliament for Toronto, is widely seen as a strong contender. She is perceived as a steady alternative to Trudeau, and polls indicate she has the best electoral prospects among Liberal politicians.
Before entering politics, Freeland was a journalist, working for major publications such as the Financial Times and Reuters. She transitioned into politics in 2013, winning a by-election in Toronto’s University-Rosedale riding.
As Canada’s first female finance minister, Freeland played a crucial role in negotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, tensions between her and Trudeau emerged when he decided she should no longer serve as finance minister but could remain deputy prime minister.
Freeland ultimately stepped down, citing policy disagreements, particularly regarding the Canadian government’s response to Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods. Trump later described Freeland as “totally toxic” and “not at all conducive to making deals.”
Mark Carney: The Economic Expert
Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has been advising the Liberal government on economic matters. He gained international recognition for helping Canada weather the 2008 financial crisis and later managing the economic fallout of Brexit in the UK.
While Carney, 59, has long expressed political ambitions, he lacks direct political experience. If he were to secure the leadership, he would need to win a parliamentary seat before assuming office as prime minister.
Dominic LeBlanc: Trudeau’s Close Ally
Dominic LeBlanc, the newly appointed finance minister following Freeland’s departure, has been a key figure in Trudeau’s government. A long-time Member of Parliament for Beausejour, New Brunswick, LeBlanc has held multiple ministerial positions, including overseeing intergovernmental affairs and fisheries.
LeBlanc, 57, has been involved in high-level discussions with US officials, including a recent meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where he warned of the negative consequences of tariffs on Canadian goods. He remains a strong contender due to his extensive political experience and close ties to the outgoing prime minister.
Mélanie Joly: The Diplomatic Candidate
As Canada’s current minister of foreign affairs, Mélanie Joly has played a significant role on the international stage. She has been an unwavering supporter of Trudeau and was part of the delegation that met Trump in Florida.
Joly, 45, has held several cabinet roles, including minister of Canadian heritage, minister of tourism, and minister of economic development. However, she has faced controversy, particularly in connection to a lawsuit filed by Palestinian Canadians and human rights lawyers over Canada’s military exports to Israel.
François-Philippe Champagne: The Trade Advocate
François-Philippe Champagne, 54, currently serves as Canada’s minister of innovation, science, and industry. He has held multiple high-profile positions, including minister of international trade and minister of foreign affairs.
Champagne has been vocal about protecting Canadian economic interests, warning Trump that imposing tariffs could push Canada toward greater reliance on China. His extensive experience in trade and economic policy could make him a compelling choice for Liberal leadership.
Can a New Leader Prevent Liberal Defeat?
Polls indicate that the Liberals are at significant risk of losing the upcoming election, regardless of who replaces Trudeau. The latest survey by Nanos Research shows the opposition Conservative Party leading with 47% support compared to the Liberals’ 21%.
“Trudeau’s resignation might provide a temporary boost in Liberal polling numbers, but it remains uncertain if a new leader can significantly alter the party’s trajectory,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a vocal critic of Trudeau, has capitalized on public dissatisfaction, particularly over the rising cost of living. The 45-year-old career politician has promised to eliminate carbon taxes and defund the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
With the election looming and the Liberal Party facing an uphill battle, the choice of Trudeau’s successor will be critical in shaping the party’s future—and determining whether it can mount a serious challenge to Poilievre’s Conservatives.