Trump Pushes for Lower Russian Oil Revenue as Key to Ending Ukraine Conflict
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is making a bold push to use Russia's oil revenue as leverage to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. In line with his campaign promise to swiftly bring the conflict to a close, Trump has zeroed in on OPEC+, the alliance of oil-producing nations, as a critical player in his strategy. By reducing global oil prices, he believes the U.S. can cut off a vital revenue stream for Russia, compelling President Vladimir Putin to reconsider his military campaign.
In his early days back in office, Trump reiterated his call for the oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, to lower oil prices. He argues that this could drain Russia's financial resources, which are crucial to sustaining its war efforts.
“One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money,” Trump told reporters. “If OPEC drops the price of oil, the war will stop right away.”
However, experts warn that this tactic may not be as straightforward as it seems. Last month, OPEC+ chose not to increase oil production due to weaker-than-expected demand and competition from non-member producers. While Trump remains hopeful, the push to lower oil prices faces significant hurdles.
During a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump repeated his call for action. Keith Kellogg, the president’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, also weighed in, suggesting that a drastic cut in oil prices—down to $45 per barrel—could potentially force Russia to end its military aggression.
“Russia is gaining billions of dollars from oil sales,” Kellogg told Fox News. “If you reduce that to $45 a barrel, it’s essentially a break-even point for them.”
However, the relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia—key members of OPEC+—complicates the situation. The two countries have cooperated on oil production strategies in the past, but their interests don’t always align. In 2016, Russia joined Saudi Arabia and other oil producers in forming OPEC+ in response to falling oil prices driven by U.S. shale oil production.
While Trump is known to have a strong relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, oil industry experts note that economic considerations often take precedence over diplomatic ties. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, cautioned that while Trump’s rapport with the Saudis might give him an advantage over President Biden, getting OPEC+ to cut prices would be a major challenge. “Oil companies respond to economics, not personal favors,” De Haan said.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has dismissed the idea that targeting oil prices would have any meaningful effect on the war. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov argued that the conflict is rooted in Russia’s perceived national security concerns, not oil prices. “The conflict is ongoing because of the threat to Russia’s national security,” Peskov stated. “It’s not linked to oil prices.”
Despite the U.S. and its allies imposing a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil, Russia has managed to sustain its revenue stream by selling oil to countries like China and India at discounted prices.
Trump recently spoke with the Saudi crown prince, his first foreign leader call after taking office. While Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt declined to comment on whether the oil price discussion was part of their conversation, the call signaled ongoing efforts to strengthen ties with the kingdom. Trump also expressed hope for a long-sought normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Trump’s public push for OPEC+ action could prove risky, as it may exacerbate tensions with oil-producing countries. In contrast, President Biden faced setbacks earlier in the Ukraine war when Saudi Arabia rejected his calls to increase oil production. Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, noted that Trump’s success would depend on what he specifically requests from OPEC+ and how much pressure he exerts.
At present, global oil supply exceeds demand by about 700,000 barrels per day, which is already weighing on prices. As of Friday, Brent crude, a key international oil benchmark, was trading at $78 per barrel. Book believes that while OPEC+ may eventually respond to Trump’s requests, the challenge remains significant.
Kellogg emphasized that Trump’s strategy relies more on economic pressure than on military assistance to Ukraine. “The human cost of the war has already been enormous,” Kellogg said, referring to the hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides. He expressed doubt that battlefield victories would persuade Putin to change course, suggesting that economic sanctions targeting Russia’s oil revenue would be more effective in bringing the war to an end.
As Trump seeks to fulfill his campaign promise of ending the war within 24 hours of taking office, he has acknowledged the complexity of the situation. “It could take months to find a resolution,” he recently stated. Trump has also expressed a willingness to meet with Putin, reaffirming that his motivation is not driven by economics but by a desire to prevent further loss of life.
While Trump’s plan to leverage oil revenue as a way to pressure Russia has yet to be tested, it remains a central piece of his broader strategy to end the conflict and bring stability to the region.