Russia and Iran Strengthen Ties Following Syria Setback
The Two Nations Sign a 20-Year Cooperation Pact, but Their Alliance Has Clear Limits
Russia and Iran have finalized a long-anticipated cooperation agreement, reinforcing their alliance amid increasing geopolitical pressures. The 20-year pact, signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday, focuses on military and defense cooperation. A key clause stipulates that neither country will allow its territory to be used for actions threatening the other’s security or support any party attacking either nation.
The agreement, long under discussion, has gained urgency due to recent developments. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has strained its global standing, while Iran faces intensified Western sanctions and the weakening of its regional allies, including the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December.
Syria has played a significant role in bringing Russia and Iran closer together. The fall of al-Assad—a long-time ally of both nations—has weakened their influence in the Middle East, pushing them to bolster their bilateral relations. The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement during Pezeshkian’s visit to Moscow reflects this shift.
Beyond military collaboration, the agreement also builds on economic cooperation, including efforts to evade Western sanctions. Moscow has been promoting the North-South Transport Corridor, which aims to bypass traditional trade routes like the Suez Canal and the Baltic Sea, favoring land routes through Iran, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian Sea.
Syria as a Catalyst for Closer Relations
Before Syria’s civil war began in 2011, both Moscow and Tehran had strategic partnerships with Damascus. Russia’s interest stemmed from its naval base in Tartous, established in 1971, and the Khmeimim airbase, built in 2015 to support al-Assad’s forces. Over time, these bases became crucial to Russia’s wider regional military operations.
Iran, meanwhile, strengthened its ties with Syria during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, viewing Syria as a gateway to Hezbollah and part of its broader "axis of resistance." When the Syrian conflict escalated in 2015, both Russia and Iran intervened militarily to prevent an opposition victory. Russia provided air support, while Iranian-backed militias fought on the ground.
Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, notes that since 2020, Russian-Iranian relations have expanded beyond Syria. Cooperation now includes military advancements, economic deals, and alternative financial systems to counter Western sanctions. Iran has also become an essential transit hub for Russia’s trade routes.
The two nations have further strengthened ties since the Russia-Ukraine war began, with Moscow relying on Iranian-made drones for its military operations. Both countries share a vision of challenging U.S. global dominance and have sought to build alternative economic alliances. Iran’s 2023 entry into BRICS, an economic bloc that includes Russia, underscores this strategy.
Limitations of the Russia-Iran Partnership
Despite their deepening relationship, the cooperation pact lacks a mutual defense clause, distinguishing it from the treaty Russia signed with North Korea in 2023. This suggests inherent limitations in the partnership, which have already been evident in Syria.
In 2017, Russia signaled its intent to dominate Syria’s post-war reconstruction efforts, sidelining Iran. Iranian officials expressed frustration over Moscow and Damascus excluding Tehran from economic opportunities, with one Iranian parliamentarian warning that Iran was being "sacrificed." The collapse of al-Assad’s government may further expose differences between Russian and Iranian priorities in Syria.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, suggests that Russia's approach to Syria could depend on broader geopolitical negotiations. If Moscow secures agreements allowing it to maintain military bases in Syria while also achieving a resolution in Ukraine—possibly under a future Trump administration—it may rely less on Iran.
Other potential points of divergence include Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While Tehran officially denies seeking nuclear weapons, some Iranian factions have publicly called for a shift in policy following recent Israeli attacks on its regional allies. Russia has historically played a role in Iran’s nuclear program but has also delayed cooperation at times, raising concerns in Tehran about Moscow’s reliability as a partner.
Shifting Alliances in the Middle East
As geopolitical realities shift, both Russia and Iran will have to adapt. The changing nature of alliances is evident in Turkiye’s evolving role. In December 2024, Turkish, Iranian, and Russian officials met in Qatar under the Astana process, which initially sought to manage the Syrian conflict.
For much of the Syrian war, Turkiye appeared to be in a weaker position. However, with the fall of al-Assad, Ankara’s support for the former opposition now places it in a more influential role. This shift may force Russia and Iran to reconsider their strategies in the region.
Omer Ozkizilcik, director of Turkish Studies at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, suggests that Iran will need to recalibrate its approach to Syria’s new leadership, having previously operated with near-total freedom under al-Assad.
Meanwhile, Russia is hedging its bets by expanding its presence in Libya, where it has ties to the eastern-based government in Benghazi. Iranian influence, on the other hand, appears to be consolidating in Iraq, which serves as both a financial resource and a defensive buffer for Tehran. Reports suggest Iran has urged its allies in Iraq to halt attacks on Israel to prevent further U.S.-Israeli retaliation.
Future Prospects for Russia-Iran Relations
Despite potential areas of divergence, analysts believe that fundamental changes in Russia-Iran relations are unlikely. Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran, argues that Iran has a long history of adapting to shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Emamian also points out that Russia, facing what it perceives as an existential challenge from the West, is unlikely to jeopardize its alliance with Iran. Putin remains aware of the entrenched anti-Russian sentiment in the U.S. and Europe, making it unlikely that Moscow would sacrifice its long-standing partnerships for short-term geopolitical gains.
While the alliance between Russia and Iran is growing, it remains a pragmatic partnership rather than a formal alliance. With both countries navigating a volatile global landscape, their cooperation will likely continue, albeit with occasional friction and strategic recalibration.