Who Are the Millions of Immigrants Trump Plans to Deport? A Closer Look
Upon assuming office, Trump issued executive orders to dismantle Biden-era immigration policies, canceling CBP One app appointments.
US President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to deporting millions of individuals residing in the United States without legal authorization. This population, often referred to as "undocumented" or "unauthorized" immigrants, has been estimated at around 11 million for over a decade. However, a surge in border crossings, reaching record highs in 2022, has significantly reshaped the immigration landscape. By 2024, the number of individuals lacking legal status or relying on temporary protections has risen to nearly 14 million, according to The New York Times.
Rising Numbers: A Shift in Trends
According to the Pew Research Center, the unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. grew from 10.5 million in 2021 to 11 million in 2022, reversing a downward trend that persisted from 2007 to 2019. This marked the first sustained increase since 2005-2007. However, the current figures still fall below the peak of 12.2 million recorded in 2007.
Key Factors Behind the Increase
The rise in unauthorized immigrants is linked to multiple factors, including record-high migrant encounters at U.S. borders in 2022 and 2023. Additionally, the number of asylum applications surged, with nearly one million cases pending decisions by the end of 2023.
Federal programs such as the Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan (CHNV) initiative and Uniting for Ukraine collectively brought in approximately 500,000 new immigrants by December 2023. While these arrivals likely contributed to the increase, the net impact remains uncertain due to factors such as emigration, deaths, and legal status adjustments.
Geographic Distribution: Where Are the Immigrants Settling?
Between 2019 and 2022, six states saw substantial increases in their unauthorized immigrant populations:
Florida (+400,000)
Texas (+85,000)
New York (+70,000)
New Jersey (+55,000)
Massachusetts (+50,000)
Maryland (+40,000)
Conversely, California was the only state to experience a decline, with a decrease of 120,000 unauthorized immigrants. Among states with the highest share of workers who are unauthorized immigrants, Nevada led with 9%, followed by Texas and Florida at 8% each.
Country of Origin: Mexico Leads, but Others on the Rise
Mexico remains the largest source of unauthorized immigrants, accounting for 4 million in 2022, though this is a decline from the 6.9 million peak in 2007. Factors behind the decline include expanded legal immigration pathways and reduced migration from Mexico. Meanwhile, numbers from other regions have risen, including:
Caribbean (+300,000)
South America and Europe (+275,000)
Asia
Among individual countries, El Salvador (750,000), India (725,000), and Venezuela (270,000) saw significant increases in unauthorized immigrants between 2019 and 2022.
Workforce and Household Impact
Approximately 8.3 million unauthorized immigrants participated in the U.S. labor force in 2022, up from 7.4 million in 2019. This group made up 4.8% of the total U.S. workforce, with the highest concentrations in Nevada (9%), Texas (8%), and California (7%).
Unauthorized immigrants also lived in 6.3 million U.S. households, impacting over 22 million people. Most households were "mixed-status," meaning they included a combination of unauthorized immigrants, lawful residents, and U.S.-born citizens. Notably, 4.4 million U.S.-born children under 18 lived with at least one unauthorized immigrant parent, while 850,000 children under 18 were themselves unauthorized immigrants.
Trump’s Deportation Priorities
While vowing mass deportations, Trump has signaled a focus on individuals with criminal records. Data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) indicates that approximately 655,000 non-citizens have criminal convictions or pending charges, though many involve minor infractions like traffic violations.
By December 2024, ICE was detaining 39,000 immigrants, nearing facility capacity. Additionally, 1.4 million individuals have been ordered to leave the country by immigration judges. However, many have deep-rooted ties in the U.S., including U.S.-born children, making their deportation a complex and resource-intensive challenge.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?
Trump’s latest immigration directives signal a return to stringent enforcement measures. While his administration has prioritized individuals with criminal records, logistical and legal challenges could complicate large-scale deportations. Meanwhile, the evolving demographic composition of unauthorized immigrants, coupled with shifting state-level trends, underscores the complexity of the immigration debate in the U.S.