Hamas Faces Setbacks in Gaza, but Remains Resilient
Despite Heavy Losses, Hamas Retains Control Amid Mixed Palestinian Sentiment
On January 14, a few days before a ceasefire took hold in Gaza, Antony Blinken, the outgoing U.S. Secretary of State, made a significant remark regarding the ongoing conflict. Over the past 15 months, Blinken has been a key figure in supporting Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, which has resulted in over 47,000 Palestinian casualties, according to human rights groups. The goal of Israel, as stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was to completely dismantle Hamas. However, Blinken, in one of his final public statements, acknowledged that Hamas was far from defeated, noting that the group had replenished its ranks nearly as fast as it had lost militants. “That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency,” Blinken said, highlighting the persistent strength of the organization.
Hamas: Battered but Unbroken
Although Hamas has undeniably suffered significant losses, it is clear that the group remains active and influential in Gaza. Experts and analysts report that Hamas has likely lost thousands of fighters, including its military leader Yahya Sinwar, and its weaponry is reported to be running low. The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) states that Hamas’s tunnel network, once a major target of Israeli attacks, is still operational, with many parts reportedly repaired and expanded.
Despite these setbacks, Hamas continues to hold a firm grip on Gaza. During the ceasefire negotiations, Hamas fighters were seen prominently in the release of Israeli captives, signaling their continued power. Furthermore, members of Hamas’s civilian administration have resumed their duties, reinforcing the group’s control over the region. Hugh Lovatt of the ECFR suggested that Hamas is using these displays of strength as a propaganda tool, emphasizing that, after over a year of conflict, the group remains in control of Gaza.
Many Palestinians in Gaza were also taken aback by the scale of Hamas's resilience. “We thought Hamas had been severely weakened, but the release of the captives showed they are still strong,” said Fathi al-Ladawi, a 67-year-old father from Gaza. The group's ability to retain hostages and secure a ceasefire agreement further underscores its enduring influence.
Challenges in Counting Hamas Losses
The true scale of Hamas’s losses is difficult to determine. The organization itself claims to have lost between 6,000 and 7,000 members, though estimates vary. According to Israeli officials, as many as 20,000 Hamas fighters were killed by November 2024, though this number remains unconfirmed by independent sources. Some experts suggest that the vast majority of Hamas’s estimated 25,000 fighters are still alive and in hiding.
In a public statement on January 19, Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida proclaimed a “victory,” honoring fallen members, including Sinwar, and asserting that the group had withstood Israel’s attempts to dismantle it. However, many observers noted the absence of a mention of Mohammed Deif, a key Hamas figure whose death was claimed by Israel but never confirmed by the group.
Public Opinion in Gaza: Mixed Sentiments
While Hamas remains a potent force in Gaza, its popularity among Palestinians is far from unanimous. A poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in September 2024 indicated that support for Hamas in Gaza had decreased slightly, though it remains significant. Some Gaza residents are disillusioned with Hamas’s actions, particularly its initiation of the October 7 attack, which led to Israel’s brutal military response and devastating consequences for the people of Gaza.
Wael Darwish, a 45-year-old resident of Nuseirat, expressed frustration with Hamas's leadership. “This was a catastrophe, not a victory,” Darwish said. “The people have suffered the greatest disaster in history. If there is any triumph, it’s because of our resilience, not Hamas.” Darwish added that if Hamas remains in power, he plans to leave Gaza.
However, others in Gaza have shifted their views. Fatima Shammali, a mother of 11, explained that while she had not supported Hamas in the past, her opinion changed during the war. “They managed to resist Israel’s military,” she said. “Even if I don't usually support Hamas, I can see they’ve played a role in defending us.”
Some analysts, including Lovatt, believe that while there is significant frustration with Hamas, particularly over its failure to anticipate Israel's devastating response, this discontent does not translate into support for Israel. “It’s not about loving Hamas,” said Hamze Attar, a Palestinian military analyst. “It’s about identity, resilience, and the Palestinian people’s right to determine their future.”
As Gaza recovers from the intense fighting, the future of Hamas’s governance remains uncertain. While some Palestinians hope the group's power is redirected for the benefit of the people, others remain wary of its ability to bring lasting peace to the region. What is clear is that Hamas, despite heavy losses, has not been defeated and continues to dominate the political and military landscape of Gaza.