China's Population Declines for Third Consecutive Year Amid Birthrate Concerns

Ongoing population decline raises economic and social concerns as birthrates continue to fall.

China’s population has declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, exacerbating concerns over the country’s demographic future and economic stability.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s population decreased by 1.39 million over the past year, bringing the total to approximately 1.408 billion. The decline is attributed to a growing gap between birth and death rates, a trend that has intensified in recent years.

A Long-Term Demographic Shift

China’s population decline has been evident for decades, but 2022 marked a turning point as deaths outnumbered births for the first time since 1961—a period of famine and hardship under the Great Leap Forward. Despite Beijing’s attempts to reverse the trend, recent policies have done little to mitigate the demographic slowdown.

“The negative effects of external factors are increasing, domestic demand remains weak, and many enterprises are struggling with production and operations,” the NBS stated in its report, acknowledging the growing economic challenges tied to the declining population.

Policy Measures Falling Short

In a bid to boost birthrates, the Chinese government has introduced various policies, including financial incentives for families, restrictions on divorce and abortion, and social pressure campaigns labeling unmarried women as “leftovers.” However, these measures have had limited success.

Following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, marriage rates saw a 12.4 percent increase in 2023, contributing to a brief surge in births in early 2024, particularly during the auspicious Year of the Dragon. Yet experts caution that the overall trend remains downward.

China’s former “one-child policy,” which was officially abolished in 2016, has had lasting effects. The policy created a demographic imbalance, with a preference for male children leading to a gender disparity that continues to impact birthrates. Although families are now permitted to have up to three children, economic pressures, high living costs, and youth unemployment discourage many from expanding their families.

Economic and Social Ramifications

China’s economy grew by 5 percent in 2024, aligning with government expectations, but analysts predict continued slowing growth in the years ahead. The shrinking workforce poses a significant challenge to sustaining economic momentum.

To address labor shortages, Beijing has initiated gradual increases in the retirement age. New policies will see the retirement age raised from 60 to 63 for men, from 55 to 58 for women in managerial and technical positions, and remain at 55 for other female workers.

A Regional Challenge

China is not alone in facing demographic challenges. Neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are also experiencing population declines, largely due to similar economic constraints and restrictive immigration policies.

Furthermore, China’s policies prohibit unmarried women from accessing fertility treatments such as in-vitro fertilization (IVF), further complicating efforts to increase birthrates.

As China grapples with these demographic hurdles, policymakers face mounting pressure to develop more effective solutions to stabilize population growth and sustain economic vitality in the years ahead.