China Faces Demographic Crisis as Population Declines for Third Consecutive Year

China's population continues to shrink for a third straight year, with birth rates falling amid growing concerns about the economy.

China's population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, marking a significant milestone in a demographic crisis that has been deepening over the past few decades. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday, the country’s population dropped by 1.39 million over the past year, now standing at 1.408 billion. This decline continues a trend where deaths consistently outpace births, raising alarms about the future of the world’s most populous nation.

The shift began in 2022 when, for the first time since 1961, deaths exceeded births. That year marked a turning point, reminiscent of the devastating effects of the Great Leap Forward, which led to widespread famine and the deaths of millions. Despite Beijing's efforts to reverse the trend, such as offering financial incentives and imposing policies to encourage larger families, the population decline shows no signs of reversing.

The NBS report highlights a number of challenges facing the country, including an external environment that continues to worsen, insufficient domestic demand, and an economic slowdown. “We must be aware that the adverse effects brought by the external environment are increasing,” the NBS stated, adding that some enterprises are facing difficulties in production and operation.

In recent years, the government has rolled out various measures aimed at reversing the birthrate decline, such as encouraging marriages, making it harder to divorce, and providing subsidies for childcare costs. However, the efforts have had limited success. While there was a brief uptick in marriages in 2023 after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts caution that the overall trend remains downward.

The Year of the Dragon, which typically sees a rise in births across Asia, did lead to a temporary spike in births in early 2024. But experts remain concerned that the population is continuing to shrink overall.

In 2016, China officially ended its controversial one-child policy, which had been in place for decades and created a gender imbalance due to a cultural preference for male children. In 2021, the country further eased restrictions by allowing families to have up to three children. However, the high cost of living, particularly in urban areas, along with a slowing economy and youth unemployment, has made having children an increasingly difficult decision for many.

While China’s economy grew by 5 percent in 2024, it is expected to slow further in the coming years. In response to the demographic challenges, Beijing has introduced new policies, such as raising the mandatory retirement age for workers, to ensure the stability of its workforce.

China is not alone in facing a demographic crisis. Other East Asian nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, are also experiencing similar declines in birth rates, partly due to restrictive immigration policies. Furthermore, like many countries in the region, China does not allow unmarried women access to fertility treatments such as IVF, further compounding the challenges of family formation.

As China grapples with these demographic shifts, the consequences for its economy, labor force, and social systems are yet to fully unfold. The government faces mounting pressure to implement more effective solutions to address the long-term impacts of its shrinking population.