After Another Loss to the Chiefs, Bills Are Closer to Victory Than They Seem

Buffalo Has Proven It Can Beat Mahomes, But Postseason Success Remains Elusive

For Buffalo Bills fans, Sunday’s AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs was another painful reminder of a recurring nightmare: their team walking off the field in defeat while the Chiefs celebrated advancing in the playoffs. For the fourth time in the last five years, the Bills' season ended at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, who also defeated them in the AFC Championship in 2020 and in the divisional rounds of the 2021 and 2023 seasons.

“To be the champs, you’ve got to beat the champs,” said Bills quarterback Josh Allen after the game. “And we didn’t do that tonight.”

Despite Allen's impressive performance, throwing for 237 yards and two touchdowns, rushing for 39 yards, and committing no turnovers, the loss left him with an unfortunate record: the most playoff losses to a single quarterback in NFL history, as he remains 0-4 against Mahomes in postseason matchups.

This latest defeat has understandably sparked frustration among Bills fans, particularly those who remember the team’s heartbreaking run of four consecutive Super Bowl losses from 1990 to 1993. Are the Bills destined to fall short when it matters most?

While it may feel like déjà vu, the Bills are much closer to beating the Chiefs than it may seem—and that’s why hope should not be lost.

For one, the Bills have actually defeated Mahomes and the Chiefs multiple times. In the regular season, Allen boasts a 4-1 record against Kansas City, including victories in their last four regular season matchups, with three of those wins coming on the road. Buffalo has shown it has the ability to beat Mahomes; it just hasn’t been able to do so in the postseason.

The Bills’ last three playoff losses to Kansas City have come down to a few key moments—many of which were determined by mere inches. In the infamous 13-second game of the 2021 playoffs, both teams scored 25 combined points in the final two minutes. What if the Bills had won the overtime coin toss and driven for a game-winning touchdown instead of Kansas City?

In the 2023 divisional round, Buffalo missed a potential game-tying field goal with under two minutes remaining. And on Sunday, two critical fourth-down plays may have swung the game in the Chiefs' favor. The first was a sneak by Allen that many believed should have been ruled a first down. The second was a desperate throw by Allen that bounced off the hands of Dalton Kincaid, who made an attempt at a diving catch.

When you examine the numbers, it’s clear just how thin the margin is between these two teams. Since 2020, Allen and Mahomes have faced off nine times, with Kansas City holding a narrow 5-4 edge. The combined score in those matchups is 245-240 in favor of the Chiefs—an average margin of victory of just one point.

While the latest defeat adds to Buffalo’s postseason heartbreak, it’s important to recognize that this situation is far different from the team’s past Super Bowl losses. The Bills may have lost those games by multiple scores, but they are not fading away now. In fact, they continue to compete closely with the Chiefs in nearly every game, with the outcome often hinging on a small detail or a crucial play.

The future is uncertain for Buffalo, and there's no guarantee they’ll be back in the postseason next year. However, based on how closely they’ve played Kansas City, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Chiefs will always come out on top.

“We’ve got to keep working to get over that hump,” said Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott after the game. “This is obviously a challenge for us. We’ll figure it out.”